At a time when central banks are cautiously recalibrating their policies, Jupiter Asset Management offers a sharp analysis of the global macro landscape in its latest Merlin Weekly Macro note.
From the Federal Reserve’s rate cut to the UK’s fiscal pressures, the asset manager highlights how economic perceptions and policy divergence are increasingly driving both market behavior and investor sentiment.
The Fed’s balancing act
The US Federal Reserve has lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, setting the new target range at 3.75–4.0%.
This reflects a delicate balance between controlling inflation and supporting employment, as inflation remains above 3% while unemployment edges toward 4.3%.
Within the Fed, views differ—some members favor stimulus to support jobs, while others warn against reigniting price pressures.
It’s a reminder that even within a data-driven institution, economic interpretation remains subjective.
Inflation as households experience it
Beyond official data, U.S. households perceive inflation to be far higher than reported, particularly for essentials such as energy, housing, and food.
This gap between data and daily experience erodes confidence and reshapes consumption patterns—proof that macroeconomic stability doesn’t always translate into stability in people’s daily lives.
The UK’s fiscal tightrope
In the United Kingdom, rising fiscal pressures and looming budget shortfalls could force politically sensitive decisions on taxation and public spending.
For Jupiter AM, credibility and clear communication will be key to maintaining market trust and preventing volatility across gilt and currency markets.
Navigating a shifting landscape
Markets don’t just respond to numbers—they react to how those numbers feel.
Jupiter AM underscores the importance of disciplined diversification and long-term thinking, combining defensive assets with selective growth exposure to weather uncertainty while staying positioned for opportunity.
Source: Jupiter Asset Management – Merlin Weekly Macro, “It’s the economy, stupid” (November 2025) here
